Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -48.7 pts to -45.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -42.5 pts to -39.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -36.3 pts to -33.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -30.2 pts to -27.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -24.0 pts to -20.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -17.8 pts to -14.7 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -11.6 pts to -8.6 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -5.5 pts to -2.4 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 0.7 pts to 3.8 pts | 5.4% |
| 6.9 pts to 10.0 pts | 2.2% |
| 13.1 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · GA-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 10.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +32.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +17.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026