Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 3.0 pts to 6.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.3 pts to 12.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.6 pts to 18.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.8 pts to 25.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.1 pts to 31.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.4 pts to 37.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.7 pts to 43.8 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.9 pts to 50.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.2 pts to 56.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.5 pts to 62.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.7 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · GA-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 89.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +12.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +34.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026