Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -53.8 pts to -50.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -47.7 pts to -44.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -41.6 pts to -38.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -35.4 pts to -32.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -29.3 pts to -26.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -23.2 pts to -20.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -17.1 pts to -14.1 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -11.0 pts to -8.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -4.9 pts to -1.9 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| 1.2 pts to 4.2 pts | 2.2% |
| 7.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · FL-26 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +41.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +23.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026