Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -3.2 pts | 0.4% |
| 0.0 pts to 3.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 6.4 pts to 9.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 12.8 pts to 16.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.2 pts to 22.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.5 pts to 28.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.9 pts to 35.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.3 pts to 41.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.7 pts to 47.9 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.1 pts to 54.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.4 pts to 60.6 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · FL-25 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 87.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +9.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +28.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026