Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 3.8 pts to 8.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.3 pts to 18.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.9 pts to 27.6 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.4 pts to 37.2 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.9 pts to 46.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.5 pts to 56.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.0 pts to 65.8 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.6 pts to 75.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 80.1 pts to 84.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.6 pts to 94.4 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 99.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · FL-24 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +36.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +51.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026