Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -7.1 pts to -4.1 pts | 1.2% |
| -1.0 pts | 1.4% |
| 2.0 pts to 5.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.1 pts to 11.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.1 pts to 17.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.2 pts to 23.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.3 pts to 29.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.4 pts to 35.4 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.4 pts to 41.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.5 pts to 47.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.6 pts to 53.6 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · FL-23 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 84.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +4.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +23.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026