Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -2.6 pts | 0.4% |
| 0.6 pts to 3.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 7.1 pts to 10.4 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.6 pts to 16.8 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.1 pts to 23.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.6 pts to 29.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.0 pts to 36.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.5 pts to 42.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.0 pts to 49.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.5 pts to 55.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.0 pts to 62.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · FL-22 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 88.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +9.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +29.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026