Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -44.8 pts to -41.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -39.0 pts to -36.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -33.3 pts to -30.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -27.5 pts to -24.6 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -21.8 pts to -18.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -16.0 pts to -13.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -10.3 pts to -7.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -4.5 pts to -1.7 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 1.2 pts to 4.1 pts | 5.4% |
| 7.0 pts to 9.8 pts | 2.2% |
| 12.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · FL-21 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 13.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +23.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +16.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026