Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 14.4 pts to 19.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.9 pts to 28.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.4 pts to 38.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.0 pts to 47.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.5 pts to 57.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.1 pts to 66.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.6 pts to 76.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.2 pts to 85.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 90.7 pts to 95.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 100 pts to 105 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 110 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · FL-20 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 97.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
D +62.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026