Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -54.9 pts to -50.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -46.7 pts to -42.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -38.5 pts to -34.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -30.2 pts to -26.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -22.0 pts to -17.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.8 pts to -9.7 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -5.6 pts to -1.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 2.6 pts to 6.7 pts | 10.7% |
| 10.9 pts to 15.0 pts | 5.4% |
| 19.1 pts to 23.2 pts | 2.2% |
| 27.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · FL-19 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 16.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +32.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +13.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±21.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026