Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -49.8 pts to -46.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -43.9 pts to -41.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -38.1 pts to -35.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -32.2 pts to -29.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -26.3 pts to -23.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -20.4 pts to -17.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -14.6 pts to -11.6 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -8.7 pts to -5.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -2.8 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 0.1 pts to 3.0 pts | 3.5% |
| 6.0 pts to 8.9 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · FL-18 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 10.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +30.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +20.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026