Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -47.3 pts to -44.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -41.5 pts to -38.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -35.6 pts to -32.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -29.8 pts to -26.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -24.0 pts to -21.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -18.2 pts to -15.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -12.4 pts to -9.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -6.5 pts to -3.6 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -0.7 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 2.2 pts to 5.1 pts | 3.5% |
| 8.0 pts to 10.9 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · FL-17 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 11.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +27.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +18.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026