Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -39.3 pts to -36.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -32.7 pts to -29.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -26.1 pts to -22.8 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -19.5 pts to -16.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -12.9 pts to -9.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -6.3 pts to -3.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 0.3 pts to 3.6 pts | 16.5% |
| 6.9 pts to 10.2 pts | 10.7% |
| 13.5 pts to 16.7 pts | 5.4% |
| 20.0 pts to 23.3 pts | 2.2% |
| 26.6 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · FL-16 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 27.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +19.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +6.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026