Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -0.7 pts | 0.4% |
| 2.9 pts to 6.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 10.3 pts to 14.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.7 pts to 21.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.1 pts to 28.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.4 pts to 36.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.8 pts to 43.5 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.2 pts to 50.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.5 pts to 58.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.9 pts to 65.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.3 pts to 73.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · FL-14 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 91% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +15.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +36.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026