Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -43.0 pts to -40.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -37.3 pts to -34.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -31.6 pts to -28.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -25.8 pts to -23.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.1 pts to -17.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -14.4 pts to -11.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -8.7 pts to -5.9 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -3.0 pts to -0.2 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 2.7 pts to 5.5 pts | 5.4% |
| 8.4 pts to 11.3 pts | 2.2% |
| 14.1 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · FL-11 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 15.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +20.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +14.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026