Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -3.5 pts | 0.4% |
| 1.2 pts to 6.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 10.8 pts to 15.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.3 pts to 25.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.9 pts to 34.6 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.4 pts to 44.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.0 pts to 53.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.5 pts to 63.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.0 pts to 72.8 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 77.6 pts to 82.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 87.1 pts to 91.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · FL-10 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 93.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +24.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +44.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026