Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -1.8 pts | 0.4% |
| 1.6 pts to 5.1 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.5 pts to 11.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.4 pts to 18.8 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.3 pts to 25.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.1 pts to 32.6 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.0 pts to 39.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.9 pts to 46.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.8 pts to 53.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.6 pts to 60.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.5 pts to 67.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · FL-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 89.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +12.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +32.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±17.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026