Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -36.5 pts to -33.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -30.8 pts to -28.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -25.1 pts to -22.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -19.5 pts to -16.6 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -13.8 pts to -10.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -8.1 pts to -5.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -2.4 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 0.4 pts to 3.3 pts | 13.7% |
| 6.1 pts to 9.0 pts | 7.9% |
| 11.8 pts to 14.7 pts | 3.5% |
| 17.5 pts to 20.3 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · FL-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 26.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +13.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +8.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026