Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.0 pts to -48.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -45.1 pts to -42.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -39.1 pts to -36.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -33.2 pts to -30.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -27.3 pts to -24.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -21.3 pts to -18.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -15.4 pts to -12.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -9.5 pts to -6.5 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -3.6 pts to -0.6 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| 2.4 pts to 5.3 pts | 2.2% |
| 8.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · FL-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +33.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +21.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026