Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -47.5 pts to -44.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -41.7 pts to -38.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -35.9 pts to -33.0 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -30.1 pts to -27.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -24.3 pts to -21.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -18.5 pts to -15.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -12.7 pts to -9.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -6.9 pts to -4.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -1.1 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 1.8 pts to 4.7 pts | 3.5% |
| 7.5 pts to 10.4 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · FL-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 11.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +26.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +18.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026