Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -3.4 pts | 0.4% |
| -0.5 pts | 0.8% |
| 2.4 pts to 5.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.2 pts to 11.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.0 pts to 16.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.9 pts to 22.8 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.7 pts to 28.6 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.5 pts to 34.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.3 pts to 40.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.2 pts to 46.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.0 pts to 51.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.8 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CT-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 86.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +6.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +25.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026