Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -16.6 pts to -13.7 pts | 1.2% |
| -10.9 pts to -8.1 pts | 3.5% |
| -5.3 pts to -2.5 pts | 7.9% |
| 0.3 pts to 3.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 5.9 pts to 8.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.5 pts to 14.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.2 pts to 20.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.8 pts to 25.6 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.4 pts to 31.2 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.0 pts to 36.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.6 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CO-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 76.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +0.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +11.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026