Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -35.0 pts to -31.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -28.6 pts to -25.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -22.1 pts to -18.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -15.7 pts to -12.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -9.2 pts to -6.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -2.7 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 0.5 pts to 3.7 pts | 18.6% |
| 6.9 pts to 10.2 pts | 13.7% |
| 13.4 pts to 16.6 pts | 7.9% |
| 19.9 pts to 23.1 pts | 3.5% |
| 26.3 pts to 29.5 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · CO-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 37.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +14.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +2.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026