Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -32.7 pts to -29.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -26.5 pts to -23.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -20.3 pts to -17.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -14.1 pts to -11.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -7.9 pts to -4.8 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -1.7 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 1.4 pts to 4.5 pts | 18.6% |
| 7.6 pts to 10.7 pts | 13.7% |
| 13.8 pts to 16.9 pts | 7.9% |
| 20.0 pts to 23.1 pts | 3.5% |
| 26.2 pts to 29.2 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · CO-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 40.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +12.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +1.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026