Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -22.4 pts to -19.5 pts | 1.2% |
| -16.5 pts to -13.5 pts | 3.5% |
| -10.6 pts to -7.6 pts | 7.9% |
| -4.6 pts to -1.6 pts | 13.7% |
| 1.3 pts to 4.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 7.3 pts to 10.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.2 pts to 16.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.1 pts to 22.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.1 pts to 28.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.0 pts to 34.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.0 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CO-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 66.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +5.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · R +9.0 pts Expedition Strategies poll, 2026-01-12 · Expedition Strategies
D +7.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026