Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 22.3 pts to 25.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.7 pts to 32.0 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.2 pts to 38.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.6 pts to 44.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.1 pts to 51.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.5 pts to 57.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.0 pts to 64.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 67.4 pts to 70.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.9 pts to 77.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 80.3 pts to 83.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 86.8 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CO-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +40.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +54.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026