Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 23.7 pts to 27.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.5 pts to 33.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.3 pts to 40.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.2 pts to 47.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.0 pts to 54.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.8 pts to 61.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 64.6 pts to 68.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.5 pts to 74.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.3 pts to 81.7 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.1 pts to 88.5 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 91.9 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CO-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +56.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +57.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±17.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026