Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 21.6 pts to 24.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.4 pts to 30.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.2 pts to 36.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.0 pts to 41.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.8 pts to 47.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.6 pts to 53.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.4 pts to 59.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.2 pts to 65.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.0 pts to 70.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.8 pts to 76.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.6 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-51 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 93% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +21.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +50.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026