Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 26.4 pts to 29.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.2 pts to 35.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.1 pts to 41.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.9 pts to 46.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.7 pts to 52.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.5 pts to 58.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.3 pts to 64.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 67.2 pts to 70.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.0 pts to 75.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.8 pts to 81.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 84.6 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-50 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 94.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +28.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +55.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026