64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -38.7 pts to -33.9 pts | 1.2% |
| -29.1 pts to -24.3 pts | 3.5% |
| -19.5 pts to -14.8 pts | 7.9% |
| -10.0 pts to -5.2 pts | 13.7% |
| -0.4 pts | 8.9% |
| 4.4 pts to 9.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.9 pts to 18.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.5 pts to 28.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.0 pts to 37.8 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.6 pts to 47.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.2 pts to 56.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · CA-48 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 54.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +18.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +9.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Aug 26, 2026