35.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -57.3 pts to -50.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -44.1 pts to -37.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -30.8 pts to -24.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -17.5 pts to -10.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -4.3 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 2.4 pts to 9.0 pts | 19.8% |
| 15.6 pts to 22.3 pts | 18.6% |
| 28.9 pts to 35.5 pts | 13.7% |
| 42.2 pts to 48.8 pts | 7.9% |
| 55.4 pts to 62.1 pts | 3.5% |
| 68.7 pts to 75.3 pts | 1.2% |
Live model read · CA-48 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 54.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
D +9.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±34.0 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026