99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -1.4 pts | 0.4% |
| 1.6 pts to 4.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 7.6 pts to 10.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.5 pts to 16.5 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.4 pts to 22.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.4 pts to 28.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.3 pts to 34.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.3 pts to 40.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.2 pts to 46.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.2 pts to 52.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.1 pts to 58.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · CA-45 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 81.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +0.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +28.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.2 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Aug 26, 2026