Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 32.1 pts to 35.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.1 pts to 41.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.1 pts to 47.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.0 pts to 53.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.0 pts to 59.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.0 pts to 64.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 67.9 pts to 70.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.9 pts to 76.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.8 pts to 82.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.8 pts to 88.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 91.8 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-44 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +42.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +62.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026