Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -23.1 pts to -18.4 pts | 1.2% |
| -13.7 pts to -9.1 pts | 3.5% |
| -4.4 pts | 3.3% |
| 0.3 pts to 4.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.6 pts to 14.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.9 pts to 23.6 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.2 pts to 32.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.6 pts to 42.2 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.9 pts to 51.6 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.2 pts to 60.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.5 pts to 70.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-41 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 76.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +3.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +23.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±23.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026