Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -26.4 pts to -22.8 pts | 1.2% |
| -19.3 pts to -15.7 pts | 3.5% |
| -12.1 pts to -8.6 pts | 7.9% |
| -5.0 pts to -1.4 pts | 13.7% |
| 2.2 pts to 5.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.3 pts to 12.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.4 pts to 20.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.6 pts to 27.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.7 pts to 34.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.9 pts to 41.5 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.0 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-40 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 63.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +10.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +9.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026