Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 19.6 pts to 22.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.4 pts to 28.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.2 pts to 34.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.0 pts to 39.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.8 pts to 45.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.6 pts to 51.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.4 pts to 57.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.2 pts to 63.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.0 pts to 68.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.8 pts to 74.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 77.6 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-38 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 92.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +19.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +48.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026