Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 31.8 pts to 34.8 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.7 pts to 40.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.7 pts to 46.6 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.6 pts to 52.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.5 pts to 58.5 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.5 pts to 64.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 67.4 pts to 70.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.3 pts to 76.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.3 pts to 82.2 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.2 pts to 88.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 91.1 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-29 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +39.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +61.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026