Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 9.2 pts to 12.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.3 pts to 18.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.4 pts to 24.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.5 pts to 30.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.6 pts to 36.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.7 pts to 42.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.8 pts to 48.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.9 pts to 55.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.0 pts to 61.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 64.1 pts to 67.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-26 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 89.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +12.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +39.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026