Published · Updates are manual.
45.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -45.7 pts to -41.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -36.3 pts to -31.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -26.9 pts to -22.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -17.5 pts to -12.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -8.1 pts to -3.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| 1.3 pts to 6.0 pts | 19.8% |
| 10.7 pts to 15.3 pts | 16.5% |
| 20.0 pts to 24.7 pts | 10.7% |
| 29.4 pts to 34.1 pts | 5.4% |
| 38.8 pts to 43.5 pts | 2.2% |
| 48.2 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · CA-23 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 42.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +20.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +1.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026