Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -22.3 pts to -18.7 pts | 1.2% |
| -15.0 pts to -11.4 pts | 3.5% |
| -7.8 pts to -4.2 pts | 7.9% |
| -0.6 pts | 6.1% |
| 3.1 pts to 6.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 10.3 pts to 13.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.5 pts to 21.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.8 pts to 28.4 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.0 pts to 35.6 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.3 pts to 42.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.5 pts to 50.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-22 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 70.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +6.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · Even pts PPP poll, 2025-08-08 · PPP
D +13.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026