Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -58.9 pts to -54.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -49.5 pts to -44.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -40.1 pts to -35.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -30.7 pts to -26.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -21.3 pts to -16.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -11.9 pts to -7.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -2.5 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 2.2 pts to 6.9 pts | 13.7% |
| 11.6 pts to 16.3 pts | 7.9% |
| 21.0 pts to 25.7 pts | 3.5% |
| 30.4 pts to 35.1 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · CA-20 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 17% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +11.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026