Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 30.9 pts to 33.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.8 pts to 39.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.8 pts to 45.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.7 pts to 51.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.6 pts to 57.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.5 pts to 63.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.4 pts to 69.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.4 pts to 75.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.3 pts to 81.2 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 84.2 pts to 87.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 90.1 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-19 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +38.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +60.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026