Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 30.6 pts to 33.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.5 pts to 39.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.3 pts to 45.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.2 pts to 51.2 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.1 pts to 57.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.0 pts to 62.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.9 pts to 68.8 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.8 pts to 74.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 77.7 pts to 80.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.6 pts to 86.5 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.4 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-17 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +35.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +60.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026