Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 21.8 pts to 25.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.1 pts to 32.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.3 pts to 39.9 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.6 pts to 47.2 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.8 pts to 54.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.0 pts to 61.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.3 pts to 68.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.5 pts to 76.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.8 pts to 83.4 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 87.0 pts to 90.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 94.3 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-14 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +35.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +58.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026