Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 20.6 pts to 25.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.3 pts to 33.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.9 pts to 42.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.5 pts to 50.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.1 pts to 59.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.7 pts to 68.0 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.4 pts to 76.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.0 pts to 85.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.6 pts to 93.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 98.2 pts to 103 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 107 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-11 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +62.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +63.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026