Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 4.4 pts to 7.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 10.3 pts to 13.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.1 pts to 19.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.9 pts to 24.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.8 pts to 30.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.6 pts to 36.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.5 pts to 42.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.3 pts to 48.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.2 pts to 54.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.0 pts to 59.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.8 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 84% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +3.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +33.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026