Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 15.1 pts to 18.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.9 pts to 23.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.7 pts to 29.6 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.5 pts to 35.4 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.3 pts to 41.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.1 pts to 47.0 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.9 pts to 52.8 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.7 pts to 58.6 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.5 pts to 64.4 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 67.3 pts to 70.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.1 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 90.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +15.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +44.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026