Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -47.7 pts to -43.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -38.3 pts to -33.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -28.9 pts to -24.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -19.5 pts to -14.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -10.1 pts to -5.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -0.7 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 4.0 pts to 8.7 pts | 18.6% |
| 13.4 pts to 18.1 pts | 13.7% |
| 22.8 pts to 27.5 pts | 7.9% |
| 32.2 pts to 36.9 pts | 3.5% |
| 41.6 pts to 46.3 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · CA-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 38.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +23.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +0.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026