Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 29.0 pts to 31.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.8 pts to 37.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.7 pts to 43.6 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.5 pts to 49.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.4 pts to 55.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.3 pts to 61.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 64.1 pts to 67.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.0 pts to 72.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.9 pts to 78.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.7 pts to 84.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 87.6 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +32.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +58.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026