Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -31.4 pts to -26.6 pts | 1.2% |
| -21.8 pts to -17.0 pts | 3.5% |
| -12.2 pts to -7.5 pts | 7.9% |
| -2.7 pts | 6.1% |
| 2.1 pts to 6.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.7 pts to 16.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.2 pts to 26.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.8 pts to 35.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.4 pts to 45.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.9 pts to 54.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.5 pts to 64.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CA-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 66.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +10.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +16.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026