Published · Updates are manual.
45.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -45.3 pts to -40.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -35.7 pts to -30.9 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -26.1 pts to -21.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -16.6 pts to -11.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -7.0 pts to -2.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| 2.6 pts to 7.4 pts | 19.8% |
| 12.1 pts to 16.9 pts | 16.5% |
| 21.7 pts to 26.5 pts | 10.7% |
| 31.3 pts to 36.1 pts | 5.4% |
| 40.8 pts to 45.6 pts | 2.2% |
| 50.4 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · CA-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 41.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +30.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +2.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026